8 Is Enough

So Mitt Romney wins the Iowa caucus straw poll by 8 votes over Rick Santorum, with Ron Paul in third. And thus is the intellectual split in the Republican Party neatly defined.

Even amateur pundits are called on to explain What It All Means. So let's try:

• What happens to the top three is less important than what happened to the bottom feeders. Michele Bachmann is making brave noises about South Carolina, but there's no path for her and hasn't been one since the Gardasil incident back in the fall. She's never lost an election before, but every politician loses one eventually. Now she has to decide whether to go home and try to win reelection to Congress, or if she should pursue another agenda. Don't be surprised if she pursues another agenda, since the 6th CD she returns to might be very different from the one she's won in the past. There's even a chance she might find herself having to run against Betty McCollum, who has a 99-year lease on the St. Paul electorate, depending on how redistricting shakes out.
• Rick Perry might be done after finishing fifth. Had he done better in Iowa, he might have had a chance in the upcoming events in the South, but at this point it's difficult to see how he rises in the field. Some of the reports I've seen this morning suggest he is going to drop out. He might as well.
• Newt Gingrich finished a distant fourth, well behind the front runners. He's got a chance to regain some ground in New Hampshire, mostly because Romney will have to fight on multiple fronts, and he could win if things break right. It's difficult to see where Gingrich would go from there, though. He's relied on the force of his personality to get back in the race, but as we've seen in his long career in politics, that personality is a double-edged sword, at best.
• No matter what else happens, Ron Paul is in this thing to the end. I still believe he's in the race to further his agenda and doesn't really expect to win. It will be interesting to see how his campaign approaches the upcoming events. He will have to tread carefully, because in the end his best bet is to pave a path for his son Rand to pursue the office in a future cycle. Sometimes I think the biggest problem Paul has is the fervor of some of his supporters. A lot of Ron Paul fans are really irritating. While it's not fair to blame the man for his fans, I think the antics from some of Paul's supporters make it difficult for people who might otherwise be amenable to his message to listen. Memo to Paul fans: insulting the electorate isn't a winning strategy, even if you think they deserve to be insulted.
• Santorum almost pulled off the miracle in Iowa, but it's frankly difficult to see where he goes from here. He was able to get the support of evangelical voters in Iowa, but the evangelicals in the South are a different matter. Santorum is Catholic and there are a lot of people in the South (and elsewhere) who won't pull the lever for a Catholic, especially among the evangelical population. We might as well be up front about that. I also don't see how Santorum will be able to sustain the momentum, given his limited resources. He may earn enough delegates to have a voice in the convention, but it's difficult to see him getting past Romney. And to be honest, the more you see of Santorum, the less you like him. While the shots I've seen about the way he handled the death of his infant child were mean and frankly beyond the pale, there's something strange about his overall manner. While you have to be a little strange to even consider running for president, you can't be too strange. I don't think Santorum will wear well.
• Romney did very well in Iowa, all things considered. I would expect him to win New Hampshire, although Jon "Iowans pick corn, New Hampshire picks presidents" Huntsman is there, lying in wait. I don't see Huntsman beating Romney, but he could take enough votes away from Romney to give Gingrich an opportunity. Still, for all his faults, Romney has to like where he is right now.