Saturday, January 19, 2013

Benster and D Pick Your Games -- Benster Calls Out Harbaugh Edition

So I've been thinking about it all day long and I've built up a full head of steam and HYYYYYYYPPPPPPPE!

So that's what was going on this afternoon. I had thought the sump pump had backed up.

Nice try, old dude. Almost funny. Really, fairly close to amusing. But not quite. Look, people don't come here for your lame attempts at humor, they come to see my brilliant observations.

Remind me -- what was your record last week?

That would be 0-4. But so what? I'm back and I'll demonstrate. Watch me work!

Complaining, as usual
San Francisco Kaepernicks (-4) vs. Hotlanta Dirty Birds. Okay, so Colin Kaepernick proved me wrong last week. He looked like a runaway dump truck going through the Packer defense. But now he's in Atlanta, where the results will not be as good. Why, you might ask? Well, let the Benster 'splain it to you. Atlanta this year has played the Panthers twice, the Seahawks and the Redskins. They have won 3 of those 4 games. All those teams had a running quarterback -- Scam Newton, Russell Wilson and RGIII. All of those gentlemen do the same things that young Kaepernick does, although with less tattoos. Unless you think that Atlanta has forgotten what they've learned from playing those guys, it stands to reason that they will have a good game plan for dealing with the magical, fabulous, unstoppable, Big XII throwback read-option play, which supposedly is absolutely unstoppable. Do you really believe that? No. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the Falcons will send out Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. All three are really big, really strong and matchup nightmares. The 49ers think they've earned a trip to New Orleans. The truth is, Colin Kaepernick will have less than 50 yards rushing and Frank Gore will have 25 yards rushing. And San Francisco will only gain 100 yards or so on the ground. In fact, they will only have 200 yards total for the game. The Atlanta Falcons will show the world that even though the read-option is a deadly killer if you're Dom Capers, the NFL is a passing league and the read-option will be a passing phase. Atlanta 35, Fire Jim Harbaugh 7.

Really? No, really? Hmmm. Benster assures me that he's made a completely serious pick. I'm beginning to wonder if he's getting freaked out about the ACT test or something. Let's just say that I disagree with his learned analysis. I think Atlanta, having had a week to prepare, will have a better plan for Kaepernick than Green Bay did. I'm sure that the experience that Benster ably documents will make a difference in defending Kaepernick. But I also think San Francisco is a better team overall. It's going to be close, because I think Atlanta matches up better with the 49ers than the Packers did, but I'm going to disagree. San Francisco 31, Atlanta 27.

Baltimore Ravens (+8) vs. New England Patriots. Okay, we've dispensed with one member of the Harbaugh family. What about John Harbaugh, the kinder, gentler Harbaugh who runs the Ravens? Well, let's go back to 2009. The Patriots were hosting the Ravens in the playoffs that year and most experts said that Patriots were going to win. Well, the Ravens won. Meanwhile, last year the Ravens also showed up in Foxborough and lost, even though they had the winning touchdown pass in the grasp of Lee Evans, who apparently forgot that Badgers need to make such catches. Anyway, the point is that the Ravens are a lot closer to the level of the Patriots than they get credit for. In fact, the Ravens are this year's team of destiny. And it would be interesting to see Ray Lewis play his final game in the stage in which he had his highest of highs, against the team that represents where he had the lowest of lows. Ravens 21, Patriots 17.

Okay, I get this pick. I can see it, because I'm not especially convinced that the Patriots are really that good. I see them as flawed. Joe Flacco showed me something last week, too -- winning in Denver was a pretty impressive thing, because I thought the Broncos were the best team in the AFC by a lot. Didn't turn out that way, though. Still, I'm going to go with the Patriots. But it's going to be close. New England 31, Baltimore 30.

Meanwhile, a word about Jim Harbaugh. The guy is an excellent coach, but man, he's irritating. The rah rah crap that he throws out there might work for a while, but it's going to get old in a hurry. The 49ers had better win it this year, because they made a huge mistake in benching Alex Smith. Kaepernick is a nice player who had a game for the ages last week, but as we all know, running quarterbacks don't last in this league. In fact, if you look at Kaepernick's style, he's a lot like Randall Cunningham, who had a few amazing years here and there but never got it done when it mattered. Just ask Vikings fans about that part. If the 49ers were smart, they'd play Alex Smith. Ben out!

1 comment:

3john2 said...

I think the read-option is not a gimmick when you have the players to execute it. Going into Sunday's game the Falcons made it clear they weren't going to let Kaepernick run outside of them. You could see it in the game as every time the play set up the Falcons brought 250 pounds of linebacker across the line of scrimmage on the outside edge to "box" CK. Good idea, except that left a gap off-tackle that Frank Gore could exploit. An average tail-back might not be as effective, but Gore makes you pay. Bring the LB inside to stop Gore and the QB runs around. Bring the safety up to support and Vernon Davis says, "Say, Colin, old bean, I do believe I'm open right here - throw boldly!" The read option makes the defense pick it's poison and then happily administers it to them.

When you've got size and skillz at those offensive positions the defense is at a disadvantage, especially since the league isn't going to let the LBs mash the QB when he doesn't have the ball (which is one way to discourage the offense from running the play).

Now, imagine Adrian Peterson is in the backfield. Is there any LB in his right mind that is going to ignore the threat of him getting the ball? A QB quick of wit and foot will make the D pay. Sure, they say the QB will get hit too much - but once the QB is past the line he is already close to the sideline and able to get as much as he can get before stepping out of bounds or sliding. Look at how many yards Kaepernick got before contact against the Packers.