We're in a bit of a lull right now in the presidential election. McCain has it wrapped up on the starboard side, while Clinton and Obama continue to slog it out.
Since there's really a dearth of news, this is a good time for analysis. I've seen some excellent stuff in recent days and want to call it to your attention.
First, this piece from Sean Oxendine, which argues persuasively (and at some length, I must warn you) that Hillary has a chance because much of the remaining race will be taking place in Appalachia, where she is running strong. You'll definitely want to read the whole thing if you have time.
Similarly, the indispensable Michael Barone argues that there's a real distinction between the sorts of people who support Obama and those who are drawn to Hillary. He terms it "Academics vs. Jacksonians." Again, this is a longish piece but it's definitely worth your time.
Having said that, there's plenty of support for Obama, as this post demonstrates. For a contrary view on the Obama phenomenon, try this.
HT for the 3rd Link: Yossarian
2 comments:
Mark,
those are great links, and the Oxendine article was really interesting. But even Oxendine qualifies by saying it is a scenario and not a prediction. The outline of Appalachia imposed on the states that have voted doesn't paint a very good picture for Obama in most of Pennsylvania, but I have to wonder if Pittsburgh and Scranton will play like much of Appalachia. My brother in law is from Pittsburgh, and is a conservative Republican Catholic, but assures me that Pittsburgh is pretty liberal. Given the way the polls seem to be breaking, in Penn, I would expect Clinton to win there, but not by the margins she will need to convince people of the viability of her campaign. Say what you will about Clinton, but one thing she is not is stupid. She knows her only chance of winning the nomination at this point is some of kind of smoking gun event with Obama. Odds of a major event are greater than zero, but dimming. But still, there's no reason for her to quit. If I was in her shoes, I wouldn't either - fate is a funny thing. She says she is in this till the Convention, but I would bet her plan is to go through all of the primaries. At that point, if Obamas lead holds up many of the super delegates will start breaking for Obama in large numbers and it really will be over forher. That is when she will quit and endorse Obama. However, since this is her plan, she can't admit that or nobody will vote for her or give her money in the remaining primaries. In order to give her delegates faint hope and keep them in line now until the end, she has to talk about the convention, Michigan and Florida, pledged delegates switching, etc. What choice does she have?
Regards,
Rich
I'm not sure if I agree with Oxendine's piece or not, but it was very interesting. The analyst part of me loves that sort of thing, especially the way he (and Barone for that matter) slice and dice the data.
What we don't know, and probably can't know until and unless it happens, is if she'll be willing to accept defeat at the hands of Obama. She's been planning on winning this thing for a long time.
The smart-aleck part of me loves the 3rd and 4th links. :)
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