The always perceptive Aaron Gleeman sizes up the situation well:
Gardenhire's firing was justified, but it has little to do with whether another manager could have avoided four consecutive 90-loss seasons with sub par talent and a lot to do with whether Gardenhire is the manager the Twins want leading them for the next 5-10 years when the talent improves.I think that's right. The larger question is whether this supremely insular organization will look outside of the organization. You're already seeing some very familiar names being surfaced -- Paul Molitor and Terry Steinbach, who were both on Gardenhire's staff this season, and former Twins players Chip Hale and Doug Mientkiewicz. You're also seeing Ozzie Guillen, the longtime White Sox manager/lovable villain who often served as the foil for the Twins during the previous decade. While those would be easily understood choices, I think it's time to look outside the organization entirely.
And it will improve. This team will be better in 2015 than it was in 2014 and better in 2016 than it was in 2015. They have too much high-end talent in the minor leagues--and some high-end talent already faring well in the major leagues--for that not to happen, so even though the next manager may have to deal with low payrolls and shaky front office decision-making the combination of an impending influx of young talent and minimal expectations should make it an appealing gig.
The two guys I'd be looking at are Dave Martinez, currently the right-hand man of Joe Maddon at Tampa Bay, and Jose Oquendo, the longtime third base coach of the Cardinals. The obvious advantage is that you want someone who speaks Spanish well, since some of the key youngsters in the organization are from Latin America -- Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas, Oswaldo Arcia and Miguel Angel Sano are all going to be part of the future of this team. It will be interesting to see if the Twins are willing to bring in a new set of eyes.
4 comments:
I agree that the Twins need a new perspective - but I think that extends beyond the manager's seat and into the front office.
The "Twins Way" - drafting small ball players and placing a focus on fundamentals - has existed since the Tom Kelly era, now extending to nearly 30 years. There have been a few deviations during that time-span (the Billy Smith years, for one), but it's held mostly intact.
I couldn't get worked up about firing Gardenhire if the result was simply promoting another manager in the same vein (Molitor or Steinbach, as examples). I can understand the team's calculus that they didn't want Gardenhire around for another decade, so better to ditch him now before their farm system matures. But if the farm system simply delivers non-power pitchers, and bloop single hitters, managed by a staff that wants to double-down on these very same skills, then what's really changed?
Terry Ryan deserves tremendous credit for building the 2000s Twins, but his draft choices essentially limited the team's growth potential. Go back and look at the Twins' first-round picks over the last decade plus. Powerless hitters like Hicks, Parmelee and Plouffe litter the scene (in addition to being players who have fizzled as regular contributors). And with pitchers, perhaps only Adam Johnson in 2000, who later admitted to using steroids, was a prospect perhaps deemed to be a strikeout pitcher. The greatest pitchers of the last decade for the team were acquired from outside the organization - Santana, Lirano and Nathan.
The Pohlads are either so loyal or lazy (or both) that they're unlikely to demand wholesale changes. Until proven otherwise, this is nothing but another coat of lipstick on a pig of a franchise.
I'd rather have Bobby Heenan than Ozzy Guillen if the Twins are going that route. He's supposed to be a "brain". I'd like Oquendo, having watched him play quite a bit and following his coaching career from afar.
As for First Ringer's comments, I don't think his evaluation of the way the Twins acquire talent is up to date. The slap-hitter profile doesn't apply to Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas or Miguel Sano and there are other bombers in the minors trying to learn the game. (Man, when Arcia, Vargas and Sano play together the Twins are going to have to armor plate the Thome flagpole in right field). To Gardy's credit (and I don't give him much), the Twins haven't tried in recent years to turn these power hitters into slappers.
Power arms have also been high on Ryan's shopping list in drafts and trades the last few years (and Billy Smith's Hardy for Hoey trade was an attempt to acquire a power arm). Ryan also gutted the Twins outfield (which turned out to be a bigger problem than he thought it would be) to acquire Mays and Meyer; again, power arms. The last two or three drafts have been very heavy on pitchers of all ages and only a couple of these have been classified as "control" pitchers.
The problem for Ryan is that baseball is a very difficult game to master and it takes time for even tremendous athletes to work their way to the majors. Frankly, I'm not counting on Sano or Buxton to make an impact next year, if they arrive at all in 2015. I don't think there's any better preparation for a hitter than getting at-bats; despite being one year older, these players can't get back essentially a season's worth of at-bats they've missed. Can you blame Ryan for being "unlucky" given the injury bug? Perhaps. (I believe the motto of the submarine corp is "If you're not lucky, we can't use you.") What I don't see in the last few years, though, is him drafting or acquiring players to fit an out-moded (or inexpensive) template.
Crank is absolutely right about the recent crop of Twins draftees - they've started trying to make a course correction.
I guess my point was (indirectly) about the long-term impact of the "Twins Way." Guys like Hicks, Parmelee and Plouffe were drafted years ago (2008, 2003 & 2004, respectively). It's taken this long, 10/11 years in some cases, to determine that these aren't players who you can count on day-to-day. Or at least that you shouldn't if you want to compete.
Thus, at this rate, the Twins could have one hell of a club - by the end of the decade. But it's effectively left the Twins in a gray zone for at least the last two seasons. Prospects too young to bring up, but promising enough that it makes little sense to acquire expensive free agents for the long-term. They've basically been engaged in a developmental 'Hunger Games' scenario, seeing who among the current crop of minor league talent can survive at the major league level. Little wonder then that Ryan feels bad about the Gardenhire firing.
The Twins were definitely stuck with a series of AAAA players like Parmalee and Plouffe and pitchers like Liam Hendricks. They'd do just enough to tease you in Triple A then flop. Patience isn't necessarily a bad thing; guys like Cuddyer and Hunter were maddening in their early years and bloomed later. Hicks may still develop if taken out from under the magnifying glass. Too much was expected of him as a result of the desperate bid for power pitching and it messed with his head (and you could debate how much Gardy had to do with that; Gardy's sports psychology skills rank right up there with F. Lee Ermey's.)
How much of these players' failures were due to their lack of skill, and how much was due to the coaching staff's inability to develop them?
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