- This state is turning into Illinois, at least electorally. The metro area has gone decidedly to the left in the last 4-6 years and outstate is becoming more conservative with each passing cycle. Since the majority of the population is in the metro area, it's becoming awfully difficult for any Republican to win a statewide election. No one did yesterday.
- Tim Walz is going to be a weak governor. He was a backbencher in Congress and nothing about his record suggests he has the sort of experience he'll need to be effective. But he did have the one thing that matters -- the letters DFL after his name. I like Jeff Johnson, but he didn't stand a chance.
- Keith Ellison is an ethical dumpster fire and a guy who, to be frank, doesn't give a damn about the law. And he's our new Attorney General. This is really the most disappointing result of the evening. Doug Wardlow wouldn't have been my first choice to be the Republican standard-bearer, but he ran a good campaign. It wasn't enough.
- The sneaky part of the evening in Minnesota is that the House flipped back to the DFL. That means a whole lotta grandstanding is coming up and not much is going to get done, because the Republicans will continue to hold the Senate.
- Keeping with the demographic changes, they become most evident in the Congressional delegation. CD1 and CD8 turn red, while suburban CD2 and CD3 go blue. I'll spend more time on these results in a later post, but I'll say two things for now -- it's a shame Jason Lewis lost. He was actually trying to do some things to make life better. Angie Craig will feign bipartisanship, but opearationally she'll be Betty McCollum with a mostly surpressed hint of Tennessee twang. That seat could flip back in 2020 if a few things break correctly. As for Erik Paulsen, he got what he deserved. It looks like voters who could have helped him, especially 2nd Amendment supporters, sat on their hands, while the voters Paulsen was courting went with the empty suit DFLer Dean Phillips. This was totally predictable.
- Over in Wisconsin, it looks like Scott Walker is out. Too bad -- he's the most innovative politician we've seen in the Upper Midwest in a long time. It's tough to win three terms. The good news, if it can be called good news, is that Tony Evers will be a trainwreck and the Republicans will retake the governorship in four years, after Evers spends four years mewling and whining and failing to repeal Act 10. People will get sick of his act quickly.
- On the federal level, the House will be under the management of the California Democratic Party for the next two years. That's potentially a blessing in disguise, because Speaker Pelosi is going to be especially effective for the Republicans as she reminds America that she is an elderly and incoherent loon. And I'm eager for the electorate to see more of Maxine Waters on television, because she will be on all the time. I'm sure another Dem loon of the California variety, Peter Schiff, will try to hassle President Trump, but I would also guess that Trump will, before the new Congress is seated, declassify and release all the documents about Russiagate, which will effectively cut Schiff off at the knees. Also, expect a lot of braying about Trump's tax returns in the next two years.
- Meanwhile, in the Senate, the Republicans will have a stronger hand. The final numbers aren't in yet, but several key states flipped red, including Florida, North Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri. It looks like the Dems will flip Nevada, but that might be it, and at this point Montana looks to be a Republican pickup as well. And in Texas, Beto O'Rourke, the biggest fraud of all the frauds the Democrats ran in this cycle, can go have a seat next to Wendy Davis. I do wish John James had won in Michigan and that Karin Housley would have won here, but it wasn't meant to be.
- Other than Walker's unfortunate defeat, the most consequential governor's election was in Florida, where Ron DeSantis held off straight-up socialist Andrew Gillum. Gillum is really a bad dude, but his charisma made him a formidable candidate. DeSantis isn't my favorite, but it was really important that he win, and he did.
We'll have a lot more to say in the coming days.
9 comments:
I had a chance to meet both Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott over the past couple of months. In person, DeSantis comes off better than on television, but I think his smile only slightly masks a much larger than Governor political ambition, so I am not sure he will be as good as Scott in running the state into a solid financial standing.
Last week Rick Scott spoke to us here in Central Florida and said their polling indicated both he and DeSantis would win. I'm not sure if that is just lucky gamesmanship or it actually speaks to the real bias of the national media polling.
I agree Wisconsin will be poorer for not having Scott Walker, but I am not sure the civil service/teachers unions would ever let another Republican in. Walker surprised them, I don't think that is likely to happen again in four years.
Thanks, John. I'll admit to not knowing a lot about Florida politics, but I can spot a demagogue a mile away, so I'm relieved that Gillum lost.
Wisconsin is interesting. The teachers unions will try to dismantle Act 10, but I am skeptical that they will be able to do so. Evers is a nebbish and he'll flounder. My guess is Walker will be headed to Washington next, but we'll see. He's quite young, so his career is not over.
Regarding Schiff, it strikes me that if indeed there is some limit to the subpoena power of Congress--the Bill of Rights certainly seems to indicate that--then the fishing investigations he's threatening could work out really badly for him. I know if I were AG, and I saw a Congressman abusing his power in that way, I'd wonder "is he breaking any laws....?". Come to think of it, even not being AG, I wonder precisely that.
And my heart would break so badly if Schiff happened to step in it and get to spend some time in the graybar hotel.....
The statewide Minnesota results don't surprise me - the legislative results unfortunately did.
Freud is credited with saying that repeating the same mistakes over and over again and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity. Considering that the MN GOP hasn't won a statewide race since 2006 and hasn't had a statewide candidate get 50% or more of the vote since 1994, I'd say the party needs to be committed at this point. Especially when other blue states have elected Republican governors. Last night, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Vermont all elected GOP governors, even amid Democrat gains. Are those governors particularly conservative? No. But are they significantly more conservative than the opponents they ran against? Hell yes.
A Republican running in Minnesota has to recognize that they'll need the outstate vote, the newer Trumpish voters in some former blue counties, regain the former suburban Republican vote and then STILL needs to find a couple of percentage points to get to 50%. That's an alchemy level of political formula right now, especially if the activist base is still engaged in a purity battle for endorsements.
Having worked on a legislative campaign the past three cycles, the legislative caucuses have become wedded to the idea that the GOP can cobble together legislative majorities on the outstate vote alone. I was repeatedly assured that we couldn't lose the house because we'd gain outstate seats which would offset expected suburban losses. It's probably a silver lining that strategy didn't work, because perhaps it'll force the GOP to understand that they can't write off the suburbs and win anything. Unless they make significant changes, and quick, they'll lose the state senate in two years and we'll be back to a single-party dominance.
A Republican running in Minnesota has to recognize that they'll need the outstate vote, the newer Trumpish voters in some former blue counties, regain the former suburban Republican vote and then STILL needs to find a couple of percentage points to get to 50%. That's an alchemy level of political formula right now, especially if the activist base is still engaged in a purity battle for endorsements.
That's daunting. But you're right -- it's the only way. The suburban issue is a challenge. I don’t live in CD3, so I’m not sure I understand the dynamic well, but Phillips obviously positioned himself well. He certainly was able to disguise the provenance of his fortune. I think Paulsen miscalculated on a number of levels, but he missed something fundamental.
California, Uber Alles... baby!
California, Uber Alles... baby!
No shit, dude. Jello Biafra was all over this nearly 40 years ago now. And sorry about Proposition 6, Gino. That really stinks.
Jello was a poser, still is. He supports everything the CA liberals are all about.
Jello was a poser, still is. He supports everything the CA liberals are all about.
Sure. But "mellow out or you will pay" seems pretty damned prescient to me.
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