Last time I picked Clinton to win. In 2012 I picked Romney to win. So this is probably Trump's kiss of death, but here goes:
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| Sweep the north |
A few particulars:
- If Biden had Minnesota in the bag, he wouldn't be coming here tomorrow. But he is. And so is Trump. Even though Biden's event is in St. Paul and Trump's is in
Dodge CenterRochester, I'd bet Trump draws a significantly bigger crowd. - I dispensed with the fractional measurements (on Nebraska and Maine) mostly to keep it clean.
- Pennsylvania and North Carolina are currently set up for voter fraud, but based on what I'm reading Biden hasn't built up enough of a lead in the early voting in either state for fraud to work. There's a plausibility limit to how many found ballots you can find. And Pennsylvania relies on fracking. I also don't think ongoing riots in West Philly are particularly propitious, either.
- Wisconsin is supposedly turning to Biden, but I don't see it. Biden has hinted at more lockdowns and while the 'Rona is on the rampage in my home state, most people there don't want to be locked down all winter. The 17-point Biden lead reported recently is clearly crap. If it were true, Trump wouldn't be visiting Wisconsin, but he will be in Green Bay tomorrow.
- Team Biden and their many enablers in the media have kept the Hunter Biden shenanigans out of the press, but word gets around.
- Biden is not healthy; yes, he's been able to get through two debates, but he's barely campaigned at all in the last week and it looks like he could stroke out on the hustings at any time. People have noticed that as well.
- Trump voters don't talk to pollsters. But they vote.
You can do your own map here. Give me your picks in the comments.
Another view, from our old pal Chuckwagon Boy:
Yet another view, this time from our man Picklesworth:
14 comments:
The 17-point Biden lead reported recently is clearly crap. If it were true, Trump wouldn't be visiting Wisconsin, but he will be in Green Bay tomorrow.
No doubt to bask in the momentum of the Brett Favre endorsement.
I am glad to see you are doing this again! Here is my map:https://www.270towin.com/maps/xkjBX
Paul said...
I am glad to see you are doing this again! Here is my map:https://www.270towin.com/maps/xkjBX
I am adding your map to the post. Further proof of the observation that America is in the same theater but are watching different movies. We'll see.
Mr. D, your map is my best guess, so I’ll offer instead what I think is plausible, but extremely optimistic. It’s what happens if Blacks vote for Trump at 20%+ (there are some suggestions it might go higher. We’ll see.); if college kids don’t vote because they’re not on campus; if suburban women vote against the party of riots. I think that’s all legitimately possible, but I’m not counting those chickens. Well, except for this map.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZOKRo
I will add your map as well, Picklesworth!
So it appears I was maybe a little overzealous, but I am still hoping for Georgia, Wisconsin and Michigan! :)
The Senate not so much!
So if Georgia ends up going to Biden after the recount, I would have only missed 2 states: Iowa and North Carolina, which I had going to Biden. Oh, and Biden won.
Paul, I wouldn't count your chickens just yet.
What?! Please tell me you are not believing Trump's bullshit about the election being stolen and the Wisconsin recount or the Giuliani led Pennsylvania lawsuit will win him the election?! You seem smarter than that!
I'm smart enough to cast a jaundiced eye on tales the national media wants to tell. It's a simple tool, but helpful in sorting out what is likely to be true or false. Few of us have first hand knowledge of what's really going on, so we have to rely on these tools. Please tell me you've noticed how desperate they are to frame this as a clear Biden win and that Trump has no case. Do you see the Twitter/Facebook shenanigans in your neck of the woods? I see it plenty. And it reeks of desperation.
Ah, the old "fake news", "evil media" or "left-wing media" argument! It appears to me that you will rely on media that favors your point of view, but if it does not tell your truth then it is to be suspect. Desperation would actually be on the conservative side with its sordid tales of a nation-wide voter fraud scandal, saying there is rampant evidence while none is shared and half-witted stories from a mascara/hair dye running former city mayor. The Biden side is not desperation, but just calling it what it is - unless one decides to deny the reality that is all too evident. But then, that is your choice.
I've been paying attention to media for some years now and they haven't distinguished themselves as truth-tellers to say the least. You can shrug that off with quotation marks if you like, but it's not much of an argument. To be clear, I'm not trying to convince you or anyone of anything. Events will play out fine (or not fine) without my desperation. I'm just alert to the possibility that the narrative being pushed might well be less certain than most imagine given the character and track record of those pushing it.
As for the Biden side "just calling it what it is"... That's nonsense. They're calling it what they want it to be. And perhaps it will be! But it isn't decided yet. So we'll see.
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